Big pharma's third-quarter results last week came with two very different answers to the same problem. More than $500 billion in worldwide prescription drug sales is potentially exposed to generic competition between 2026 and 2032, according to Evaluate data reported by BioPharma Dive.
On Oct. 30, AstraZeneca launched a cost programme to free up money for its pipeline. The same day, Sanofi raised its guidance and signalled it was ready to spend more on acquisitions.
Worldwide drug sales exposed to generic competition, selected years
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2028 (about 6.5% of the market) | $99B |
| 2031 (peak year in the forecast) | $158B |
Keytruda's patent expiry falls in 2028. AbbVie alone faces about $50 billion of exposure in 2032.
AstraZeneca: $1.5 billion of savings, reinvested in the pipeline
AstraZeneca reported third-quarter revenue of $16.2 billion, up 7%, and reconfirmed its 2026 guidance. Alongside the results, it introduced a programme called Reshaping for Sustainable Growth.
AstraZeneca's Reshaping for Sustainable Growth programme
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Annualised pre-tax run-rate benefits | $1.5B |
| One-time restructuring costs, at most | $2.0B |
| Pipeline projects the savings will fund | 180+ |
AstraZeneca expects the programme to be essentially complete by the end of 2029.
The results statement doesn't say what will be cut or whether jobs are affected. It says the savings will be reinvested principally in the pipeline.
The cliff is already visible in AstraZeneca's numbers. Its results show third-quarter sales falling sharply for drugs that have lost exclusivity:
- Farxiga, the diabetes and heart-failure drug, fell 25% to $1.61 billion after US exclusivity loss and price cuts under China's volume-based procurement.
- Brilinta, the blood thinner, fell 50% at constant exchange rates to $75 million.
- Soliris, the rare-disease antibody, fell 35% to $298 million.
we are on track to deliver our 2030 ambition and to sustain growth through the next decade.
Pascal Soriot, CEO, AstraZeneca
Sanofi: ready to pay more for late-stage assets
Sanofi's problem is concentration. Dupixent, its eczema and asthma antibody, is growing fast, and that growth makes the eventual loss of exclusivity a bigger hole to fill.
Sanofi's net sales, Q3 2026
| Label | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Dupixent | €5,687M | 39.4% |
| Everything else | €8,757M | 60.6% |
| Total net sales | €14,444M |
Dupixent grew 34.8% at constant exchange rates. Sanofi's total sales grew 14.3%.
Source: Sanofi Q3 2026 results (Oct. 30, 2026), SEC Form 6-K
Sanofi raised its 2026 outlook to low-teens sales growth. Its net debt stood at €12.2 billion at the end of September.
Our priority is to protect earnings through Dupixent's loss of exclusivity.
Belén Garijo, CEO, Sanofi
CFO François-Xavier Roger told Reuters that Sanofi would consider deals larger than its usual $2 billion to $5 billion range, with more interest in late-stage or marketed medicines. It will stay in immunology, rare diseases and vaccines, though Roger said it could also look at what he called white spaces or moonshots. Analysts estimate Sanofi has about €20 billion to spend.
The buyers who have already moved
The most exposed drugmakers have been spending for two years. Evaluate's tally of announced deals since the start of 2024 shows Merck, whose Keytruda loses patent protection in 2028, at the top.
Announced M&A by patent-exposed pharma buyers since 2024
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Merck | $30.9B |
| Eli Lilly | $27.2B |
| AbbVie | $22.3B |
| Johnson & Johnson | $20.4B |
| Sanofi | $16.1B |
| AstraZeneca | $6.8B |
What to watch next
- Pfizer's third-quarter results on Nov. 3, the last big US drugmaker to report this season.
- Detail on AstraZeneca's programme, including where the savings come from and what happens to headcount.
- Sanofi's first deal above $5 billion, which would confirm the shift Roger described.
